Statistical arbitrage
for prediction markets.
EVPlus continuously prices every Kalshi sports contract against the sharp sportsbook consensus. We surface positions with positive expected value, size them with fractional Kelly, and enforce risk caps at the order layer. Built for traders, not bettors.
Three layers, fully transparent.
Sharp consensus modeling
We pull no-vig fair prices from Pinnacle, Circa, and a weighted consensus across regulated US books for every Kalshi sports market. Recency-weighted on the last five minutes; stale lines are excluded. This is the modeled true price.
Edge detection
Kalshi best bid and ask are compared against the modeled fair price in real time. We surface positions where the edge clears your threshold (default 1.5%, configurable) and the market passes liquidity, time-to-resolution, and per-market filters.
Position sizing
Fractional Kelly is applied against your declared bankroll. Every position is capped by contract count, daily loss limit, and a server-side kill switch that flattens exposure in a single click.
Kalshi sports liquidity is a fraction of the global sportsbook market.
That asymmetry produces persistent micro-inefficiencies. Individually small, collectively meaningful. EVPlus is built to capture them at scale.
What an edge looks like.
| Market | NBA - Spurs ML vs Timberwolves |
| Sharp consensus (no-vig) | Spurs 89.0% / Wolves 11.0% |
| Kalshi best ask | YES Spurs @ 86¢ |
| Implied edge | +2.9% |
| Kelly size (0.5×, $1,000 bankroll) | 12 contracts → capped at 10 |
| Capital at risk | $8.60 |
| Expected value | +$1.40 |
| Time to resolution | 4h 22m |
Over a typical week, 200–400 such positions surface across NBA, NFL, NHL, MLB, and weather markets. Sized with discipline, the cumulative expectancy materially outperforms passive bankroll.
Show the work, then ask for trust.
Start with the free tier.
See today's top edges. View the calibration chart. Read the methodology. Decide on your own time.