Track record
Calibration and history.
Every signal we surface is logged and reconciled against the settled outcome. This page reads from the live database. If our modeled edge says 62%, our realized win rate at that edge size should be near 62%. Anything else is a calibration failure, and it shows up here first.
Tracking signals since May 4, 2026
Signals surfaced
27
Settled
2
Pending settlement
25
Calibration by edge bucket
| Edge bucket | Sample size | Expected win rate | Realized win rate | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5% – 2.5% | 2 | 77.8% | 50.0% | -27.8% |
| 2.5% – 4.0% | - | - | - | - |
| 4.0% – 6.0% | - | - | - | - |
| 6.0%+ | - | - | - | - |
Recent signals
| Date | Market | Edge | Outcome | P&L per ct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-07 | NFL - New York Giants NO | +18.3% | pending | - |
| 2026-06-07 | NHL - Vegas Golden Knights YES | +2.8% | pending | - |
| 2026-06-07 | MLB - San Francisco Giants NO | +10.1% | pending | - |
| 2026-06-07 | MLB - Philadelphia Phillies NO | +10.4% | pending | - |
| 2026-06-04 | NFL - New York Giants NO | +19.3% | pending | - |
| 2026-06-04 | MLB - Colorado Rockies NO | +6.8% | pending | - |
| 2026-06-04 | NBA - San Antonio Spurs YES | +19.8% | pending | - |
| 2026-06-04 | MLB - Cleveland Guardians NO | +8.2% | pending | - |
| 2026-06-04 | MLB - Philadelphia Phillies YES | +2.6% | pending | - |
| 2026-06-04 | NHL - Carolina Hurricanes NO | +7.8% | pending | - |
| 2026-05-04 | MLB - St. Louis Cardinals YES | +4.1% | pending | - |
| 2026-05-04 | MLB - Arizona Diamondbacks NO | +4.5% | pending | - |
| 2026-05-04 | MLB - New York Mets YES | +5.4% | pending | - |
| 2026-05-04 | MLB - Boston Red Sox NO | +3.8% | pending | - |
| 2026-05-04 | NBA - Detroit Pistons YES | +2.7% | pending | - |
| 2026-05-04 | NBA - San Antonio Spurs YES | +2.3% | loss | −80¢ |
| 2026-05-04 | MLB - San Diego Padres NO | +2.5% | pending | - |
| 2026-05-04 | NHL - Buffalo Sabres NO | +3.5% | pending | - |
| 2026-05-04 | MLB - Seattle Mariners YES | +5.0% | pending | - |
| 2026-05-04 | MLB - Los Angeles Angels YES | +8.3% | pending | - |
| 2026-05-04 | MLB - Los Angeles Dodgers YES | +3.1% | pending | - |
| 2026-05-04 | MLB - Chicago Cubs NO | +7.6% | pending | - |
| 2026-05-04 | NHL - Carolina Hurricanes NO | +2.4% | pending | - |
| 2026-05-04 | MLB - Toronto Blue Jays YES | +6.6% | pending | - |
| 2026-05-04 | MLB - Detroit Tigers YES | +8.4% | pending | - |
| 2026-05-04 | NBA - Oklahoma City Thunder YES | +2.1% | pending | - |
| 2026-05-04 | NBA - New York Knicks NO | +2.3% | win | +29¢ |
What you can verify here
- That our edge buckets are calibrated - realized win rates close to expected.
- That edges persist across many markets, sports, and weeks - not a few lucky outliers.
- That losses fall within the expected variance of a fractionally-Kelly system.
- That the sample size is large enough to draw conclusions before you commit capital.
See the live edges as they surface.
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